Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 521

   Mesoscale Discussion 0521
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0820 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 230120Z - 230315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this
   evening. Hail is the primary risk.

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak, low amplitude
   short-wave trough is located over the central Plains. This feature
   is translating east and may provide some encouragement for isolated
   convective development along/near a frontal zone that currently
   extends from south of CNK-north of STJ. 00z sounding from TOP
   exhibited very steep lapse rates, but notable capping was evident
   near 2km, and surface-based convection may struggle to develop as
   nocturnal cooling increases. However, large-scale ascent ahead of
   the short wave may cool/moist mid levels such that an elevated
   parcel is more likely to freely convect over the next few hours.
   This activity could briefly attain severe levels, but
   longevity/coverage may not warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Darrow/Mosier.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39129752 40389460 40389345 39709364 38139657 39129752 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN