Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 492

   Mesoscale Discussion 0492
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0920 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...Edwards Plateau Region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 200220Z - 200315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue across the Edwards
   Plateau region. New WW is warranted by 03z.

   DISCUSSION...Leading edge of strong large-scale ascent is spreading
   across west TX. Cold front has recently surged through Fort Stockton
   and convection is expected to increase along the boundary as it
   advances east. Stalled synoptic front is currently draped from near
   Stephenville-San Angelo into Upton County. VAD profile from SJT
   exhibits very strong ESRH along the north side of the boundary, but
   substantial ESRH exists across the warm sector as well. LLJ is
   expected to increase ahead of the short wave over the next few
   hours, and a marked increase in convection is expected across the
   Edwards Plateau as forcing overspreads this region. While the
   primary storm mode may become more linear in nature, there is some
   concern for tornadoes with supercells that currently exist, and with
   embedded circulations along the forced line. New watch will likely
   issued by 03z to account for this evolution.

   ..Darrow/Smith.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31130213 32109961 31389914 30770159 31130213 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN