Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 490

   Mesoscale Discussion 0490
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0827 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 149...

   Valid 200127Z - 200300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 149 continues.

   SUMMARY...An uptick in the tornado threat may be underway over
   southern portions of Tornado Watch 149. The extent of the tornado
   threat is dependent on further intensification of warm-sector
   supercells. A strong tornado is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple small supercells have gradually organized over
   the past couple of hours over portions of central TX within the warm
   sector. KFWS NEXRAD data shows a likely low-level mesocyclone
   becoming established with a more dominant supercell in Erath County.
   These storms are intensifying amid a moist and unstable
   surface-based airmass, along the western periphery of an
   intensifying low-level jet. Given strong low-level shear in place,
   any further intensification with these storms may support tornado
   development. Some of the latest WoFs guidance also indicates the
   potential for increased low-level rotation with these storms over
   the next few hours.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31969884 32789838 33489790 33519729 33169701 32639725
               32059780 31759811 31699848 31969884 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN