US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 410



   Mesoscale Discussion 0410
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0501 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

   Areas affected...Central MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101001Z - 101200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and potentially a brief tornado
   are possible across central Mississippi over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Convective line stretching from northern MS
   southwestward through central LA has shown a bit more forward
   propagation over the past hour or so, as this portion of the line
   becomes more perpendicular to the deep-layer shear vector. The
   strongest updrafts within the line now exist over central MS, where
   a few bowing segments currently exist. Recent VAD profile from KDGX
   sample 220-225 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relatively helicity over the
   past half hour, which matches well with a small maximum in 0-1 km
   storm-relatively helicity in the same region on the mesoanalysis.
   However, low-level stability persists across the region, with recent
   mesoanalysis and forecast soundings estimating substantial
   convective inhibition remains in place. Even so, a few damaging
   gusts may still be able to reach the surface. Additionally, any
   sustained mesovortex may be able to produce a brief tornado.
   However, the low-level stability is expected to keep the overall
   severe potential low, despite the favorable kinematics.

   ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/10/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31509122 31869092 32329031 32948998 33468978 33678928
               33478878 32948883 31818928 31488964 31399023 31509122 



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