Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 406

   Mesoscale Discussion 0406
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast Indiana...far southern Lower
   Michigan...northwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102...

   Valid 132209Z - 132345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A multicell cluster of storms may produce occasional wind
   damage into early evening. Local extension in area of WW 102 is
   possible, but additional watches are not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of multicell storms continues east near the
   Indiana/Michigan border. Recent observations show max convective
   gusts in the low 40 kt range. Water vapor imagery shows modest
   shortwave ridging over this area which has lead to marginal
   effective shear values. Downstream of this activity, dewpoints have
   mixed down into the upper 50s F. The current expectation is for this
   cluster to continue to produce occasional damaging winds with a
   general decrease in intensity/organization with time. The strongest
   activity may remain on the southern flank where dewpoints are
   slightly higher. While local extensions of WW 102 may occur,
   additional watches are not expected at this time.

   ..Wendt.. 04/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41008620 42118572 42268421 41928333 41188369 40938487
               41008620 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN