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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 403

Mesoscale Discussion 403
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0403
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0732 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

   Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 100032Z - 100200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong storms have developed across southeast Texas. A
   watch is possible if these storms exhibit better organization over
   the next 1 to 2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms have developed within a 850mb
   confluence axis from near Houston and northeastward. A very moist,
   unstable environment is present across southeast Texas with
   dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low to mid 70s
   yielding 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear of 55 to 60 knots
   will support supercells as the primary storm mode. Forcing for
   ascent is the primary question as some shortwave ridging is building
   into the region ahead of the trough digging into northern Texas.
   This may restrict a greater threat across the region and keep the
   severe threat more isolated. Low-level shear is not that strong with
   some veering, but less than 30 knots of flow in the lowest 2 km.
   Therefore, any stronger supercells which may develop, will have some
   tornado threat.

   ..Bentley.. 04/10/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29979508 31279408 31339263 31169266 30699275 30139292
               29679336 29579418 29409469 29269467 29159492 29979508 

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