Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 403

   Mesoscale Discussion 0403
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern Indiana into extreme
   southwestern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102...

   Valid 132038Z - 132215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 102
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe wind/hail threat should continue with ongoing
   storms over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster of thunderstorms is persisting
   eastward amid a heated boundary layer (characterized by surface
   temperatures over 80 F), and modest vertical wind shear. Multiple
   wind damage reports, along with measured gusts around 50 kts have
   been received over the past few hours. MRMS MESH has also indicated
   the possibility of 1+ inch hail occurring with some of the stronger
   storms as well. Given 60+ F surface dewpoints and resultant 1500+
   J/kg MLCAPE preceding the storms, a severe wind/hail threat should
   continue with these storms for at least a few more hours. Given
   adequate surface-based instability preceding supercell structures, a
   tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   40868754 41528721 42008657 42108576 41988511 41708475
               41278480 41028514 40878580 40798641 40798713 40868754 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN