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Mesoscale Discussion 0403
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
Areas affected...southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 100032Z - 100200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong storms have developed across southeast Texas. A
watch is possible if these storms exhibit better organization over
the next 1 to 2 hours.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms have developed within a 850mb
confluence axis from near Houston and northeastward. A very moist,
unstable environment is present across southeast Texas with
dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low to mid 70s
yielding 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear of 55 to 60 knots
will support supercells as the primary storm mode. Forcing for
ascent is the primary question as some shortwave ridging is building
into the region ahead of the trough digging into northern Texas.
This may restrict a greater threat across the region and keep the
severe threat more isolated. Low-level shear is not that strong with
some veering, but less than 30 knots of flow in the lowest 2 km.
Therefore, any stronger supercells which may develop, will have some
tornado threat.
..Bentley.. 04/10/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29979508 31279408 31339263 31169266 30699275 30139292
29679336 29579418 29409469 29269467 29159492 29979508
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