Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 399

   Mesoscale Discussion 0399
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of far east TX into western/northern LA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 95...

   Valid 092050Z - 092215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 95 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe/damaging wind potential may increase in the short
   term with a small bow moving eastward across parts of
   western/northern Louisiana. Significant severe winds up to around 75
   mph appear possible.

   DISCUSSION...A small bowing complex continues to organize across far
   east TX into far western LA. Even with cloud cover remaining
   prevalent downstream into northern LA, gradual airmass
   destabilization is occurring along and north of a surface boundary.
   Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be sufficient to maintain
   current thunderstorm intensities, and strong deep-layer shear will
   be more than enough for continued convective organization with the
   bow. Recent Warn on Forecast (WoF) output shows increasing potential
   (greater than 50% chance) for severe-caliber winds of 50 kt or
   greater with this bow as it spreads eastward across parts of
   northern LA over the next couple of hours. Some chance for
   significant severe winds up to around 75 mph also appears possible.
   With ample 0-1 km shear present, and low-level winds backed to
   easterly along/near the surface boundary, a tornado threat will also
   exist. The best chance for a tornado will probably remain focused
   with embedded circulations within the bow, and along the surface
   boundary.

   ..Gleason.. 04/09/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32249446 32599442 32749359 32719218 32269206 31609214
               31479318 31269441 31749433 32249446