|
Mesoscale Discussion 394 | |
<Â Previous MD | |
Mesoscale Discussion 0394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024 Areas affected...Northwest TX...TX Big Country Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091247Z - 091445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging gusts are possible across the Texas Big Country/northwest Texas this morning. DISCUSSION...Elevated supercell continues to move northeastward at around 30 mph. Based on recent forecast soundings, this storm is likely rooted around 800 mb, within an environment characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear. Cloud-bearing layer shear is likely around 70-80 kt. This strong shear will likely allow for this storm to persist as it moves northeastward over the next hour or two, despite relatively modest buoyancy. Large hail is the primary risk, but strong gusts are also possible, as evidenced by the recent gust of 60 kt in Garza County. Additional development is possible over the next few hours near and west/northwest of the surface low (currently in the Reagan County TX vicinity) as both warm-air advection and strengthening large-scale ascent bring parcels to their LFCs. This activity will likely be elevated throughout the morning, but strong shear will support the potential for large hail. Some stronger gusts could reach the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is uncertain, but trends are be monitored closely for potential watch issuance. ..Mosier/Smith.. 04/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31360038 31870104 33460101 34409938 33739841 32659853 31649917 31360038 |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |