Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 389

   Mesoscale Discussion 0389
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

   Areas affected...parts of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 121919Z - 122115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms with potential to produce severe
   hail may gradually develop through 4-6 PM CDT.  It is not yet clear
   that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue
   to be monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath the belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly 500 mb flow
   overspreading central Texas, deepening convective development is
   evident near and west of the I-35 corridor, from the Hill Country
   northward into areas just southwest of the Metroplex.  Forcing for
   ascent downstream of a jet streak embedded within this regime may be
   aiding development, which appears focused within weak
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the northern/northeastern
   periphery of a plume of more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer
   air.

   Boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points near 70F
   appears to be contributing to CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, aided by
   increasing insolation in the wake of early day convection spreading
   northeast and east of the region.  Given the strong deep-layer
   shear, it appears that a couple of supercell structures with
   potential to produce large hail may develop as scattered storms
   initiate over the next few hours.

   ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32179832 31869743 30189706 29889828 30429844 31599911
               32179832 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN