Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 348

   Mesoscale Discussion 0348
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0615 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Areas affected...portions of North Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021115Z - 021315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds and marginal hail to near 1 inch
   possible this morning. Overall risk is expected to remain low and a
   watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has developed along an
   eastward-advancing cold front across western north Texas this
   morning. Mid-60s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are
   contributing to strong MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Capping
   and modest linear forcing associated with the cold front will likely
   preclude greater severe potential despite the favorable
   thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. Nevertheless, isolated
   gusty winds and perhaps hail to near 1 inch diameter will be
   possible. Watch issuance is not currently expected, but radar trends
   will continue to be monitored through the morning.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   34059861 33029973 32549963 32369846 32579722 32849675
               33279648 33709658 33809686 34059861 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN