Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 317

   Mesoscale Discussion 0317
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1033 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of western and middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

   Valid 310333Z - 310430Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
   tornadoes continues across Tornado Watch 76.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercell clusters continues across
   portions of middle and western TN. Over middle TN, 50 kt of 0-6 km
   shear (per OHX VWP) is oriented oblique to the line, which is
   allowing supercells to stay along or immediately ahead of the gust
   front. This is supporting ingestion of large boundary-layer
   streamwise vorticity (around 400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per OHX VWP) and a
   greater tornado risk here. Farther southwest into western TN, 50 kt
   of deep-layer shear is still supporting robust supercells, though
   its parallel orientation to the gust front will continue favoring
   slightly elevated inflow and a greater risk for large hail.

   ..Weinman.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35149071 36498713 36558679 36378643 35748654 35358714
               34828980 34689063 34919091 35149071 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN