Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 314

   Mesoscale Discussion 0314
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0920 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 310220Z - 310445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat, with potential for wind damage, tornadoes
   and hail, will likely develop over the next couple of hours across
   parts of eastern Kentucky, far western Virginia and southwest West
   Virginia. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a bowing linear
   MCS across central and western Kentucky. An axis of instability is
   located ahead of the line, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000
   to 1500 J/kg range. Near the instability axis, surface dewpoints are
   in the lower 60s F. The line is being supported by large-scale
   ascent ahead of shortwave trough in the mid Mississippi Valley,
   evident on water vapor imagery. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs
   across the Ohio Valley have 0-6 km shear from 50 to 60 knots, with a
   substantial amount of directional shear in the lowest 2 Km AGL. This
   environment will continue to support a severe threat as the line
   moves eastward across central and eastern Kentucky late this
   evening. Wind damage and hail will be likely with the stronger
   components of the line. A tornado threat will also likely exist with
   rotating cells embedded in the line.

   ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   36568280 36568404 36668459 36898491 37348495 37758493
               38248471 38448451 38578409 38618338 38568237 38508203
               38318172 38038157 37628158 36998178 36658225 36568280 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN