Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 313

   Mesoscale Discussion 0313
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0837 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas...Far Northeast
   Louisiana...Western Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 310137Z - 310400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop this evening across parts of
   southeast Arkansas, far Northeast Louisiana and western Kentucky.
   Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front in
   central Arkansas, with a moist airmass located ahead of the front
   across much of southeastern Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana.
   Just ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s F.
   This is contributing to MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range,
   estimated by the RAP. Along the western edge of the stronger
   instability, isolated storms have formed about 40 statute miles
   south of Little Rock. The WSR-88D VWP at Little Rock has 0-6 km
   shear near 50 knots. This shear environment could support severe
   storm development. However, some question remains whether the
   large-scale forcing is strong enough for upscale growth of
   convection. The RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates across southeast
   Arkansas and western Mississippi around 7.5 C/km, suggesting that
   the storms could produce isolated large hail. In addition,
   supercells that develop would likely be accompanied by severe wind
   gusts.

   ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34809203 34969139 34909059 34678985 34278960 33578973
               33029004 32769065 32729138 32809208 33009253 33309278
               33959276 34539244 34809203 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN