Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 313

   Mesoscale Discussion 0313
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0552 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

   Areas affected...Southern New York into western Connecticut

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 312252Z - 010015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorms will spread across the Hudson
   Valley into western Connecticut this evening. Severe thunderstorm
   watch is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...An elongated MCS has matured across portions of Upstate
   NY early this evening. Leading edge of this activity is spreading
   east and will soon advance across the Hudson Valley, aided in part
   by an expanding precip shield. While the downstream air mass is not
   particularly unstable, strong westerly flow will contribute to this
   MCS spreading toward western CT. Severe thunderstorm watch may be
   warranted downstream.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 03/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   42807539 42737320 42087322 41797459 42077643 42807539 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN