Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 312

   Mesoscale Discussion 0312
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0813 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...Southern half of Ohio...far northeastern
   Kentucky...and far western West Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

   Valid 310113Z - 310315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

   SUMMARY...A squall line capable of producing severe wind gusts and
   mesovortex tornadoes will continue eastward across the southern half
   of Ohio. A local extension of Tornado Watch 76 is warranted, and
   trends are being monitored for an additional downstream watch as
   well.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from ILN depicts a
   north/south-oriented squall line with embedded mesovorticies
   tracking eastward at around 40 kt across the southern half of Ohio.
   Ahead of the line, the ILN 00Z soundings sampled deep low-level
   moisture and modest lapse rates -- contributing to 500 J/kg MLCAPE
   (higher farther south). Despite the marginal instability, a 40 kt
   low-level jet is favoring a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph
   with around 330 0-1 km/effective SRH (per the 00Z sounding and
   recent VWP data). Given the well-established cold pool and
   moist/high-helicity inflow, severe gusts upwards of 70 mph and
   mesovortex tornadoes remain possible in the near-term. Tornado Watch
   76 will be extended to account for this near-term severe risk, and
   areas farther downstream are being monitored for an additional
   downstream watch. However, storms will eventually be approaching the
   eastern edge of the warm sector, and limited buoyancy will
   eventually limit the severe risk.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/31/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39118445 39978413 40308374 40378328 40298208 40038131
               39798108 39238099 38658134 38348164 38338225 38538369
               38748439 39118445 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN