Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 305

   Mesoscale Discussion 0305
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan...Northwest Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 301949Z - 302145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...An organized line of storms with a history of 60-85 mph
   wind gusts will continue into western Ohio and southern Lower
   Michigan. Risk for damaging winds will continue with more
   isolated/uncertain threats for large hail and tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...An organized line of fast-moving storms continues
   northeastward through central/northern Indiana. Modest
   destabilization continues ahead of this line into portions of
   western Ohio and southern Lower Michigan. Given the organization of
   this line, potential for severe/damaging gusts will remain even as
   buoyancy tends to wane north and east. This line of storms has a
   history of producing wind gusts of 60-85 mph. Damaging winds will
   likely remain the primary risk. Isolated large hail could occur, but
   storm mode will mitigate that risk. Likewise, storm mode is also not
   optimal for tornadoes. Regional VAD winds and RAP forecast soundings
   do suggest some QLCS tornado risk will exist, but this risk
   diminishes with eastward extent. One or more watches will need to be
   considered for portions of western Ohio and southern Lower Michigan
   by 21Z.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43028639 43558486 43568327 42948247 41978229 41118286
               40718387 40568459 40708483 40918493 43028639 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN