Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 303

   Mesoscale Discussion 0303
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0209 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...The northern Gulf Coast

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301909Z - 302115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for brief tornadoes may continue through the
   late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, training convection has
   been continually developing along the northern Gulf Coast along a
   outflow-reinforced marine boundary. Although a consolidated outflow
   boundary is slowly developing per regional radar imagery, steady
   influx of high low-level theta-e air off the Gulf should promote
   further thunderstorm development through the diurnal heating
   maximum. Weakly veering winds through the lowest 2 km (best sampled
   by the KMOB VWP) is supporting sufficient low-level helicity for
   brief mesocyclone development with an attendant tornado risk. This
   potential has already been realized at least once based on a recent
   TDS evident across far southeast MS. Until the sea breeze weakens
   early this evening, strong updrafts with an attendant brief tornado
   threat may continue to develop on the southern periphery of the
   marine/outflow boundary. Given the localized nature of the threat
   watch issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 03/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30868660 30628662 30458675 30318702 30248749 30198797
               30168862 30228920 30048969 30159010 30409025 30709007
               30948958 31098876 31208772 31188706 31088668 30868660 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN