Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 293

   Mesoscale Discussion 0293
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

   Areas affected...portions of north/central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 300823Z - 301030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible into early morning across
   portions of north/central Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated elevated convection is developing within the
   core of the upper level jet streak across parts of north/central
   Texas. This area is also within a weak baroclinic zone and area of
   low-level confluence. Latest mesoanalysis and forecast soundings
   show moderate instability (up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE), aided by steep
   midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km. Additionally, supercell wind
   profiles and 50+ kt effective shear will likely support organized
   cells. With the main area of large-scale ascent gradually lifting
   northeast of the region, convection is expected to remain rather
   isolated. Nevertheless, the environment will support storms capable
   of producing large hail. Trends will be monitored for possible watch
   issuance.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 03/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31279897 32039870 32539787 32519689 32309618 32029569
               31409555 31029578 30799632 30749760 30739860 31219903
               31279897 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN