Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 293

   Mesoscale Discussion 0293
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern and central Ohio...western
   Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...

   Valid 262340Z - 270115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado
   continues in advance of a cold front moving southeast across the
   watch area this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front was located over far northern OH and
   northwest PA at 2330z, with a line segment of severe thunderstorms
   moving southeast across northwest OH extending from near Toledo to
   Ottawa and a history of damaging winds and severe hail. In the
   presence of MLCAPE of 500 to locally 1000 J/kg and sufficient
   deep-layer shear, the environment will favor supercell and linear
   structures capable of continued potential for large hail and
   damaging gusts. Low-level shear of 150-200 m2/s2 will support some
   potential for low-level rotation and a risk for a tornado,
   especially with any semi-discrete storm that can persist. Severe
   storms moving into western OH west of Versailles will likely
   continue to pose a severe risk given the favorable thermodynamic and
   kinematic environment, and local watch extension has been
   coordinated in this area.

   Across eastern OH/western PA, more isolated severe storms have
   developed and occasionally exhibited supercell characteristics.
   Latest RAP soundings suggest a continued favorable environment for
   severe wind and hail, along with the potential for a tornado given
   sufficient low-level shear.

   ..Bunting.. 03/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41078439 41158404 41478389 41668379 41678364 41608331
               41398236 41438122 41538116 41718062 41788027 41727998
               41407971 41147968 40947969 40727975 40598022 40548091
               40628158 40188305 39768407 40168469 40778471 40928457
               41078439 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN