Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 290

   Mesoscale Discussion 0290
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0957 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

   Areas affected...Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 68...

   Valid 300257Z - 300500Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across much of Oklahoma over
   the next few hours. Isolated large hail, severe gusts, and tornadoes
   will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery shows two areas of
   severe storms, one in southern Oklahoma and another in western
   Oklahoma. The southern Oklahoma cluster is located along a narrow
   axis of moderate instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE near 2000
   J/kg. The FDR WSR-88D VWP has about 50 knot of 0-6 km shear, which
   will continue to support supercell development late this evening.
   The TLX WSR-88D VWP has more directional shear in the lowest 2 km
   AGL. This strong directional shear is evident on RAP forecast
   soundings in central Oklahoma, which have 0-3 km storm-relative
   helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range. This should be favorable for
   a tornado threat, as supercells move northeastward across central
   Oklahoma late this evening. Increasing surface dewpoints may aid a
   developing tornado threat. Forecast soundings in western and
   south-central Oklahoma also have 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8
   C/km. This environment should support a large hail threat. The large
   hail threat will likely be maximized with the cluster in
   south-central Oklahoma, where right-moving and left-moving
   supercells are ongoing. Supercells will also be capable of producing
   severe wind gusts.

   ..Broyles.. 03/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35479923 35769899 36359822 36769743 36909667 36849552
               36429519 35929522 35349544 34289642 33979718 34069788
               34319883 34849925 35479923 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN