Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 289

   Mesoscale Discussion 0289
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0935 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of north-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67...

   Valid 300235Z - 300400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and severe wind gusts may be
   increasing across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 67.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data indicates a recent
   intensification of thunderstorms in central Texas, including a
   supercell cluster tracking eastward into southern Erath County.
   These storms are intercepting richer boundary-layer moisture
   (lower/middle 60s F dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
   (sampled by 00Z FWD sounding). Despite increased inhibition at the
   base of the EML, the favorable buoyancy and 40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear
   (with ample low-level hodograph curvature) will support the
   maintenance and or slight intensification of these storms over the
   next hour or so. Large hail (up to around 2-2.5 inches in diameter)
   and severe wind gusts up to 70 mph are the primary concerns. With
   time, gradual upscale growth and a strengthening/consolidating cold
   pool may favor more severe wind.

   ..Weinman.. 03/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31549891 31979859 32609799 32689761 32639724 32429707
               31839716 31439744 31189791 31179847 31349884 31549891 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN