Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 267

   Mesoscale Discussion 0267
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0733 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

   Areas affected...portions of WA and OR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 65...

   Valid 270033Z - 270200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 65
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage is expected over the
   next couple of hours in and close to WW65. Severe storms, including
   a couple of supercells will remain capable of damaging gusts, hail
   and possibly a tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0030 UTC, regional radar and lightning data
   indicated a slow increase in convective activity across parts of the
   Northwest. Likely driven by the local diurnal maximum in surface
   heating and the arrival of ascent from the broad east Pac trough,
   this trend should continue over the next few hours. Around 1000 J/kg
   of MUCAPE and 50-60 kt of deep-layer shear from the RTX VAD are
   strongly supportive of organized storms, including supercells and
   linear clusters. Radar echo tops and lightning trends across parts
   of Cowlitz and Lewis counties do suggest an increase in convective
   intensity. This matches with recent HRRR runs that suggest a few
   stronger storms should evolve from northern OR, across the Columbia
   River Valley, and northward into western WA this evening. 

   This would support a continued risk for damaging wind gusts given
   the strong lower tropospheric flow. Additionally, hail and a tornado
   or two will remain possible with the stronger rotating storms and
   any favorable terrain interactions. Thus, the severe risk continues
   across WW65.

   ..Lyons.. 03/27/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PDT...SEW...PQR...

   LAT...LON   45132375 46802394 47702401 48092287 48162181 47892130
               46032158 44382185 44332240 44262282 44522355 45132375 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN