Mesoscale Discussion 0253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1027 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025
Areas affected...Ozark Plateau Region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 230327Z - 230530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail may accompany storms across the Ozark
Plateau the next several hours.
DISCUSSION...Weak, low-amplitude short-wave trough is approaching
southeast KS late this evening. Partly in response to this feature,
LLJ is strengthening across central OK into southwest MO. VAD
profile from INX/SGF both exhibit intense 0-3 SRH and low-level warm
advection will focus ascent across the Ozark Plateau over the next
several hours. While moisture is advancing northeast in conjunction
with this LLJ, 00z sounding from OUN depicted only 0.82 PW; however,
0-6km lapse rates are very steep and this will aid buoyancy as
moisture surges into southern MO. Over the last hour or so,
convection has begun to deepen along the nose of the LLJ, and this
should continue over the next few hours. Wind profiles favor
organized rotating updrafts, and a few supercells may emerge.
Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield the
most MUCAPE, hence hail will be the primary risk with the most
robust updrafts. If more organized convection develops, a severe
thunderstorm watch may be warranted.
..Darrow/Gleason.. 03/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 37059501 37479415 37229268 36589248 36439336 36609474
37059501
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