Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 240

   Mesoscale Discussion 0240
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0437 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of IA into extreme northwest IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 190937Z - 191130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong thunderstorm gusts are possible
   early this morning.

   DISCUSSION...An arc of elevated convection has recently intensified
   from west-central into eastern IA, aided by ascent attendant to a
   powerful cyclone moving across KS, and within an environment
   characterized by MUCAPE of around 500 J/kg and cold temperatures
   aloft. Increasing midlevel flow northeast of the cyclone is
   supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, assuming a sufficiently deep
   updraft. Some transient storm organization will remain possible
   through the early morning, with a favorable thermodynamic
   environment for production of small to isolated severe hail, as
   noted earlier north of Omaha. Localized strong gusts also cannot be
   ruled out with any more organized and sustained cells.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 03/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42609501 43149325 42999171 41919009 40439084 41449350
               41949503 42189528 42609501