Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 236

   Mesoscale Discussion 0236
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of Upper MI...northern Lower MI...and far
   northeastern WI

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 130706Z - 131100Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates around 1 inch per hour (locally
   higher) are expected through the early morning.

   DISCUSSION...Within the base of a compact shortwave trough moving
   eastward across MN, water-vapor imagery and VWP data indicate a
   robust jet streak (around 100 kt at 6 km per VWP data) impinging on
   WI. In response, a northwest/southeast-oriented frontogenetic zone
   is evolving slowly northeastward across WI, Upper MI, and northern
   Lower MI. Forcing for ascent is being maximized along/immediately
   north of this zone, where cold/deeply saturated profiles and the
   focused ascent are favoring a band of moderate to heavy snow. The
   strong/focused ascent within a deep/saturated DGZ will continue to
   favor heavy snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour, though locally
   higher rates to around 2 inches per hour are possible under the core
   of the band translating northeastward across Upper MI into northern
   Lower MI through the early morning hours.

   ..Weinman.. 03/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...

   LAT...LON   44318652 45258770 46658930 47168927 47518865 47538779
               47038636 46598548 45838455 45048402 44518375 43928393
               43598463 43778565 44318652