Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 231

   Mesoscale Discussion 0231
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern GA into parts of SC and north FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 50...

   Valid 121250Z - 121415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues.

   SUMMARY...The wind-damage and brief tornado threat may continue
   eastward through the morning.

   DISCUSSION...Some decrease in convective vigor has been noted with
   the long-lived QLCS moving across parts of east GA and FL Panhandle.
   However, low-level rotation continues to occasionally be noted along
   portions of the line, especially across parts of
   east-central/southeast GA, where an evolution to more of a
   semi-discrete mode has occurred. Modest downstream destabilization
   and ascent attendant to an approaching mid/upper-level shortwave
   trough may help to sustain organized convection through the morning,
   with some wind-damage and brief-tornado threat spreading into parts
   of SC and southeast GA. 

   Lightning activity has diminished with the southern portion of the
   line approaching north FL, but strong low-level flow may continue to
   support at least a localized damaging-wind threat through the
   morning. Parts of north FL will be monitored for an uptick in
   convective intensity later today, due to potential for somewhat
   stronger diurnal destabilization in this area.

   ..Dean.. 03/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31008300 32148218 33218250 34158217 34648181 34918155
               34978097 34988070 34718042 34208035 33158061 31868113
               30978156 30318181 29918236 29858281 29808330 29988375
               30188368 30738320 31008300 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH