Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2305

   Mesoscale Discussion 2305
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern LA into central MS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 720...

   Valid 282156Z - 282300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development across southern MS and
   southeastern LA could pose a significant tornado threat over the
   coming hours. However, displaced east from the strongest synoptic
   forcing, it remains unclear how persistent the threat may be until
   later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Across the eastern edge of PDS Tornado Watch 720, an
   isolated supercell (with recent reports of a tornado) was observed
   over northeastern Franklin County MS. Additional discrete
   development has been noted farther south into southeastern LA,
   likely along a subtle confluence axis stretching into the northern
   Gulf of Mexico. This storm has slowly organized over the last
   several hours, coincident with the northward advection of a weak
   warm front. An unstable air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and
   strong low-level shear (300-400 m2/s2 ESRH JAN DGX VAD) is
   supportive of a continued severe threat. The strong low-level shear
   is also conditionally supportive of a strong and long-track tornado
   threat into central MS given the favorable storm mode.

   However, much of this activity is displaced farther east from the
   stronger synoptic forcing until later this evening. This could tend
   to make the threat somewhat intermittent until stronger forcing
   arrives. Thus, while the environment is favorable for a continued,
   and conditionally significant severe/tornado threat, there remains
   some uncertainty on the duration/longevity of the risk.

   ..Lyons.. 12/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31779096 31879096 32409067 32649053 32848993 32758961
               32608931 32428926 31608957 31328986 31129006 31009060
               31079101 31319106 31779096