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| Mesoscale Discussion 2292 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwestern
Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 272116Z - 272245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat should persist for at least a
few more hours.
DISCUSSION...Transient supercell structures have supported sparse
tornado development this afternoon despite gradually weakening
low-level shear profiles. Given modest surface heating, surface
temperatures have warmed to near 70 F, contributing up to 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE (per 21Z mesoanalysis) where surface dewpoints have climbed
to the upper 60s F. The best low-level moisture and dewpoints reside
roughly from Jones County, MS to the Mobile Bay area, and this is
where the most robust thunderstorm development (with strong
low-level rotation and/or tornadoes) has occurred. Given the limited
overlap of the best low-level shear and moisture, a localized
tornado threat may persist for only a few more hours.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30258926 30588961 31088964 32348895 32798852 32848815
32508796 31958789 31398759 30958716 30608708 30278734
30098841 30258926
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