Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2190

   Mesoscale Discussion 2190
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0951 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central and western North TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031551Z - 031745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage and
   intensity through the morning over parts of central and western
   North TX. A mix of supercells and linear segments may support a risk
   for all hazards. There remains significant uncertainty on the timing
   and intensity of the the threat, but the possibility of a WW is
   being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1545 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
   showed intensifying thunderstorms along a dryline across
   west-central TX. A second, semi-elevated cluster was also ongoing
   northwest of Killeen. Ascent, in the form of a broad area of height
   falls and weak DPVA should continue to overspread the Southern
   Plains this morning and afternoon ahead of a deepening upper trough.
   South of a well-defined outflow boundary/quasi warm front near the
   Red River, additional storm development appears likely over the next
   several hours. Surface temperatures in the mid 70s with surface
   dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70F are allowing 1000-1500 J/kg
   of MLCAPE despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates. Weak
   inhibition is slowly diminishing with diffuse diurnal
   heating/low-level advection warming the air mass.

   As the upper trough approaches, moderate deep-layer shear should
   intensify, with 45-60 kt favorable for organized storms in the form
   of a mix of supercells and line segments. Additional storm
   development is likely south of the outflow along the dryline and
   potentially across the warm sector through this morning. As storms
   slowly mature, a risk damaging winds and hail appears likely given
   the favorable shear and buoyancy. The tornado threat is more
   nebulous, but somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs and stronger
   low-level shear near the effective warm front could support a risk
   for a few tornadoes. Eventually, one or more clusters/QLCS should
   emerge as upscale growth of numerous storms takes place.

   The primary uncertainty this morning is how quickly storm mature.
   Some CAM solutions are quite aggressive, suggesting storms quickly
   maturing over the next 1-2 hours. Others are more gradual with the
   greatest threat later this afternoon. Regardless, the environment is
   becoming more favorable for an all hazards severe risk this morning.
   The need for a WW is being evaluated.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 11/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34439989 34499941 34359898 34249849 33929744 33129693
               32669708 31559774 30969838 30569940 30580063 30660219
               32190150 33290110 34230007 34439989