Mesoscale Discussion 0216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0857 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 48... Valid 160157Z - 160400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 48 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging wind and tornado threat persist across parts of eastern Middle Tennessee, but is expected to continue waning heading into the late evening hours. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection across eastern TN has shown signs of gradual weakening with decreasing lightning counts, and warming cloud top temperatures. However, convection that remains across the area continues to show signs of mid-level rotation, and the overall convective environment remains very strongly sheared within a broad, northward-lifting warm frontal zone. The kinematic environment was sampled well by the 00z FFC sounding, though prolonged convective overturning across much of TN is limiting buoyancy considerably more than was is depicted by the observed sounding. Although a localized severe threat continues for the short-term (next hour or so), continued diabatic cooling heading into the late evening should result in gradually diminishing severe potential. ..Moore.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX... LAT...LON 35358393 35138402 35018425 35018488 34998540 35138551 35358549 35518543 36338491 36488472 36528450 36508417 36418387 36208381 35358393
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