Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 212

   Mesoscale Discussion 0212
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0749 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of central/southern IN...OH...northern KY

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 41...

   Valid 111249Z - 111415Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 41 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado or two
   will expand eastward through the morning.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS with a history of producing
   occasional severe gusts and wind damage is moving across parts of
   central/southern IN this morning. Very strong low-level flow (50-60
   kt at 1 km AGL from the 12Z ILN sounding and regional VWPs) will
   continue to support wind-damage potential with this QLCS, despite
   the relatively shallow nature of the ongoing convection. Some
   additional enhancement to ascent and low-level flow associated with
   an MCV moving across southern IL may help to sustain a wind-damage
   threat through the morning, as convection spreads toward eastern IN
   and western OH. Low-level shear/SRH is also sufficient for some
   tornado threat, especially if any semi-discrete convection can
   mature along or ahead of the primary line. Local expansion of WW 41
   and/or downstream watch issuance may eventually be needed, depending
   on short-term convective trends. 

   In the wake of the morning convection, some recovery will be
   possible near the remnant outflow later this morning into the
   afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley, which could result in
   another round of severe potential.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...
   ILX...

   LAT...LON   40198611 40748483 41098338 41158205 40608156 39508172
               38908324 38078529 37708701 37778773 37878795 38378812
               38988717 39178702 40198611 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN