Mesoscale Discussion 0197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of central Louisiana into northern Mississippi and extreme southwestern Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 44... Valid 151304Z - 151430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 44 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 44. The potential for tornadoes (some strong) will only increase into the morning hours. Severe wind and hail will also be possible. DISCUSSION...Deep-moist convection continues to increase in coverage and intensity along a baroclinic zone characterizing the northwestern bounds of the free warm sector. Recently, storms along the southern extent of this convective band have developed supercell characteristics, with pronounced low-level mesocyclones noted via KSHV radar data. 12Z JAN and LCH soundings show mid-level lapse rates above 8.5 C/km, along with rich low-level moisture and large, curved/elongated hodographs already in place, which is highly supportive of tornadic supercells. Through the morning hours, increased boundary-layer heating and ascent from the approaching upper trough should only boost shear/buoyancy further, resulting in a continued increasing severe threat. All severe hazards will be possible, including strong tornadoes, particularly with the more sustained supercells with unimpeded inflow. ..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31879333 32919243 34569055 35398920 35328852 34458835 33768881 32679047 32019130 31449182 31209250 31879333
Source link