Mesoscale Discussion 0181 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0847 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...east-central Missouri and into adjacent western Illinois Concerning...Tornado Watch 32... Valid 150147Z - 150315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat is forecast to spread into the greater St. Louis area over the next hour. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows dewpoints now into the mid 50s west of the Mississippi River, southwest of the St. Louis Metro area. This has supported a northward expansion of the axis of greatest mixed-layer CAPE, per recent RAP-based mesoanalysis, with near 1000 J/kg now as far north as St. Louis, and 2000 J/kg to near FAM (Farmington, MO). In response, several supercell storms have organized within the main convective band, and are moving northeastward at 45 kt. At this time, one storm in particular, moving across Franklin County, is showing very strong low-level rotation, with hints of a corresponding minimum in correlation coefficient that would suggest an ongoing tornado. As such, given the background thermodynamic and kinematic environment, potential for a significant tornado appears to exist. This storm will continue to track northeastward toward the St. Louis area, potentially resulting in a particularly dangerous situation. ..Goss.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37649186 38279130 38769120 39349015 39358966 38338975 37869079 37649186
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