Mesoscale Discussion 0167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025
Areas affected...part of central and southern Alabama into
southwestern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 131617Z - 131845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is increasing likely
across parts of south central Alabama into southwestern Georgia
through mid to late afternoon. This may include a few intensifying
storms with potential to produce marginally severe hail and,
gradually, a small organizing cluster or two accompanied by strong
surface gusts later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Beneath cool mid-level troughing in the 700-500 mb
layer, a gradual boundary-layer moistening, and warming due to
insolation and advection, are contributing to ongoing
destabilization across the region. This is occurring as forecast
soundings suggest that weak to modest large-scale ascent erodes a
relatively warm capping layer between 850-700 mb. It appears this
is supporting the deepening convective development evident in latest
satellite and radar imagery, which guidance generally indicates will
lead to increasing scattered thunderstorm development though 18-20Z.
Beneath 35-50 kt west-northwesterly flow around 500 mb, deep-layer
shear appears sufficient to support gradually intensifying and
organizing convection, in the presence of mixed-layer CAPE on the
order of 500-750+ J/kg. This may include one or two storms
exhibiting mid-level updraft rotation, with the potential to produce
marginally severe hail, and perhaps a small evolving cluster or two
eventually accompanied by a few strong surface gusts later this
afternoon, while propagating east-southeastward.
..Kerr/Gleason.. 03/13/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 33108706 33018650 33038575 32868493 32058407 31238452
30818531 31308598 31628714 32548769 33108706
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