Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 167

   Mesoscale Discussion 0167
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Ohio...northwestern West Virginia...western
   Pennsylvania...southwestern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 071757Z - 072000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development may become capable
   of producing marginally severe hail, increasing risk for damaging
   wind gusts and perhaps accompanied by potential for a couple of
   tornadoes by 3-5 PM EST.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer layer moisture return across the upper
   Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region is ongoing, but remains
   somewhat modest with surface dew points increasing through the
   mid/upper 50s.  However warming and mixing with continuing
   insolation is contributing to steepening low-level lapse rates and
   thermodynamic profiles with weak to modest CAPE increasing in excess
   of 500 J/kg, beneath southwesterly deep-layer mean ambient flow
   increasing to near 50 kt.  

   Deepening convective development now appears underway along and
   discretely ahead of a convectively generated pre-cold frontal
   surface boundary now advancing across central into eastern Ohio.  As
   this continues into the Allegheny Plateau through 21-22Z, developing
   thunderstorm activity appears likely to intensify and organize. 
   This may include a few evolving supercell structures within and
   ahead of an evolving line, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and
   damaging wind gusts.  

   With surface winds generally veered to a fairly prominent westerly
   component, the degree to which low-level hodographs will become
   supportive of tornadic potential remains unclear, particularly given
   the still sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads. 
   However, as 850 mb winds strengthen to 50+ kt across eastern Ohio
   into western Pennsylvania, various model derived output suggests
   that profiles could become locally conducive to a supercell tornado
   threat by late afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   42537973 42127817 40797932 40018008 38738163 38358266
               39088350 40548232 42537973 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN