Mesoscale Discussion 0162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025
Areas affected...cntrl/n cntrl into nern Texas...southeastern
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121941Z - 122215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorm development appears possible
as early as 4-5 PM CDT near the I-35 corridor, before spreading
eastward accompanied by increasing potential for large hail and
damaging wind gusts. It is possible a severe weather watch may be
needed by early evening.
DISCUSSION...Beneath warm, dry lower/mid-tropospheric air,
associated with an elevated mixed-layer, boundary-layer based
moistening has occurred across much of southern through eastern
Texas. This has been modest though, with higher precipitable water
content (in excess of .75 inches) confined to a narrow corridor
inland of mid/upper Texas coastal areas, and tending to advect
north-northeastward across eastern Texas.
Westward into a developing axis of stronger daytime heating and
deeper boundary-layer mixing, roughly northwest of Del Rio into
areas west of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, an initially diffuse
dryline may sharpen while shifting into/across the Interstate 35
corridor of central/North Texas. However, even as surface dew
points begin to mix out across this corridor, model forecast
soundings indicate that cooling on the leading edge of a mid-level
cold core (temperatures of -20 to -22 around 500 mb) emerging from
the Pecos Valley/Texas South Plains will steepen lapse rates, erode
inhibition and still support mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg.
Generally within the exit region of a 70+ kt cyclonic mid-level jet,
it appears that this could become supportive of scattered vigorous
thunderstorm development as early as 21-22Z. Initially, stronger
storms may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong
surface gusts. As this activity spreads east of the Interstate-35
corridor into early evening, in the presence of strong deep-layer
shear, there appears potential for substantive further
intensification as it gradually encounters the better low-level
moisture return. This probably will include at least a period with
increasing risk for large, potentially damaging hail, before
convection possibly begins to consolidate into an organizing cluster
later this evening.
..Kerr.. 03/12/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 31329751 32089765 32719777 33589719 34719623 34869443
32539506 31629503 30939564 30659678 31329751
Source link