Mesoscale Discussion 0160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025
Areas affected...Parts of the northern FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101133Z - 101400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms are possible this
morning.
DISCUSSION...At 11 UTC, a warm front draped across the northern FL
peninsula is gradually moving northward. Along/south of this
boundary, dewpoints near 70 F are supporting MLCAPE of near/above
500 J/kg, despite the presence of generally weak low/midlevel lapse
rates. While deep-layer shear is more than sufficient to support
organized convection, storms have generally remained disorganized
thus far, likely due in part to the weak lapse rates and lack of
stronger large-scale ascent across the area.
Some increase in large-scale ascent is expected through the morning,
as a positive-tilt midlevel shortwave trough approaches the region,
and a frontal wave moves eastward across the northern peninsula.
With time, more vigorous storm development will be possible
along/ahead of a cold front approaching the FL Gulf Coast, and a few
stronger cells/clusters may evolve. 0-1 km SRH in excess of 200
m2/s2 (as noted on the KTBW VWP) will support at least a brief
tornado threat if any supercells can be sustained, with localized
strong/damaging gusts and small to near-severe hail also possible.
The magnitude/coverage of the severe threat remains uncertain and
potentially limited, due to generally weak lapse rates and modest
buoyancy. However, observational trends will continue to be
monitored for the potential of storm organization within a diurnally
destabilizing environment later this morning.
..Dean/Smith.. 03/10/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29748108 28648102 27378138 26658167 26428187 26508222
26728233 27038244 27878285 28288298 28898313 29248325
29808242 30158194 30238143 29748108
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