Mesoscale Discussion 0157 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0842 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026 Areas affected...Southeast Kansas Concerning...Tornado Watch 15...18... Valid 070242Z - 070415Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 15, 18 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase across southern/southeast Kansas over the next couple of hours as a cold front pushes into a favorable convective environment. DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from central/eastern KS shows ongoing convection being undercut by a strong surging cold front, which has largely limited overall convective intensity so far this evening. GOES IR imagery depicts new attempts at deep convection to the northwest of the Wichita, KS area as the front begins to push into a pocket of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. The KICT VWP also depicts very strong low-level helicity on the order of 600 m2/s2. The combination of new convective development within this conditionally favorable environment suggests that some uptick in severe potential is possible in the coming hours across south/southeast KS - most likely manifesting as a severe wind and tornado threat as storms quickly grow upscale. However, it remains to be seen whether deeper/stronger convection across this region can remain rooted along/ahead of the front. If undercutting occurs, the overall severe threat may remain somewhat limited. Ahead of the front, multiple attempts at sustained deep convection have been noted to the east/southeast of Wichita, KS, likely the result of increasing isentropic ascent associated with the onset of the nocturnal jet (per KICT VWP data). While cell maturation has been limited owing to the relatively nebulous forcing for ascent, this convection is developing in an environment supportive of supercell development (though it remains unclear if one or more cells will be able to mature prior to the arrival of the front). While confidence is low, any cell that can develop across this region may be able to realize the highly favorable environment (characterized by STP values around 3-5) and pose a threat for large/very large hail, severe wind, and tornadoes (including the potential strong tornadoes). ..Moore.. 03/07/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37059759 37239794 37669806 37929754 38539675 38799641 38949602 38919565 38709528 38169530 37869539 37499580 37269635 37109694 37059759 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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