Mesoscale Discussion 0154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025
Areas affected...Parts of northwest into north TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 080749Z - 081015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few storms with large-hail potential are expected to
develop overnight.
DISCUSSION...Weak elevated convection is ongoing early this morning
across parts of central TX, with a recent increase in midlevel
cloudiness and elevated convection also noted across northwest TX.
This ongoing activity is likely related to ascent and midlevel
moistening beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, in advance of a
mid/upper-level low (and related shortwave trough) approaching the
region from the southern Rockies. A further increase in elevated
convection is expected overnight, primarily near/north of a
southward-moving cold front, as relatively rich low-level moisture
continues to stream northward near/north of the frontal zone, and
ascent related to the shortwave and attendant strong mid/upper-level
jet overspreads the region.
While ongoing weak convection may be rooted near/above 700 mb,
continued low-level moistening beneath steepening midlevel lapse
rates is expected to result in a few deeper/stronger elevated storms
overnight, especially from parts of northwest into north TX. MUCAPE
increasing to near/above 1000 J/kg and favorable effective shear
could support at least transient elevated supercells, with some CAM
guidance suggesting development of one or two longer-lived cells
later this morning.
Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support
a hail threat with the stronger elevated storms, especially if any
deeper and longer-lived cells can develop. Locally gusty winds could
also accompany any sustained supercells, despite the elevated nature
of the convection. Coverage and longevity of the organized severe
threat remain uncertain, but watch issuance may be considered if
observational trends support maintenance of multiple severe storms
overnight.
..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 32080059 32720061 33000038 33309987 33539935 33599803
33289647 32889587 31499625 31199721 31059857 31009957
31069990 31280023 32080059
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