Mesoscale Discussion 0138 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0536 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 21... Valid 042336Z - 050130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread southeast this evening. Damaging winds can be expected, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Intense mid-level height falls will spread across the mid-Mississippi valley this evening, with lesser, but significant forcing extending south across the lower MS Valley ahead of a strong short-wave trough. Long-lived, organized squall line is propagating southeast ahead of this feature, and currently extends from east-central MS into southeast LA. Higher boundary-layer moisture has struggled to move appreciably inland with mid 60s surface dew points having advanced into Jones County MS, roughly 70 mi north of the Coast. This is about the northern extent of modest buoyancy, and the greatest instability should hold along/near the Gulf Coast much of the evening. Very strong wind profiles continue to favor organized convection and damaging winds are expected with this linear MCS. Until/unless more discrete cells form ahead of the line, any tornado risk should be with embedded supercells. ..Darrow.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 29749089 32148894 31678825 29459006 29749089
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