Mesoscale Discussion 0125
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025
Areas affected...portions of western and central OK into western
North Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 040155Z - 040330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to rapidly
increase by 04z. All severe hazards, including damaging winds, a few
tornadoes and large hail are possible late this evening into the
overnight hours. A tornado watch will likely be needed by 03z.
DISCUSSION...Warm advection continues across OK/TX on strengthening
low-level south/southeasterly flow. Mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints
are now evident in surface observations with destabilization
underway across western OK/northwest TX. The 00z RAOB from FWD
indicated a fairly deep boundary layer with a 64 F dewpoint, while
OUN showed more marginal moisture, but still a saturated boundary
layer to just below 850 mb. Atop the relatively cool but moist
boundary layer, capping will likely persist until a cold front and
strong large-scale ascent impinges on the region. Forecast soundings
suggest convection developing rapidly along the eastward-advancing
cold front will struggle to become fully surface-based given
somewhat marginal boundary layer dewpoints. However, strong forcing
and continued warm advection may be sufficient for sporadic
surface-based storms, especially near/south of the Red River. If
this occurs, intense low-level shear and favorable hodographs
already evident in regional VWP data, suggest some tornado potential
is likely both with the developing QLCS and any line-embedded
supercells.
In addition to tornado potential, steep midlevel lapse rates and
cooling aloft, coupled with elongated hodographs above 2-3 km
indicated large hail will be possible. This will be most likely
early in convective evolution or with any semi-discrete cells that
can be maintained. Furthermore, given strength of deep-layer flow
and a somewhat fast-moving line of storms, damaging winds also will
be likely. A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next hour or
so.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/04/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 35059981 36989948 36979659 35049677 32599753 32629844
32719999 33379997 35059981
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