Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 124

   Mesoscale Discussion 0124
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

   Areas affected...South Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011739Z - 011945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are possible primarily near and along the
   South Florida coast this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds and
   marginally severe hail are the expected hazards. A watch is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Convection continues to increase near the South Florida
   coast this afternoon as temperature are reaching the upper 70s to
   low 80s F. Localized convergence along with modest mid-level ascent
   appears to be the largest contributors to this activity. With time,
   a more well-developed sea breeze will likely move inland and promote
   additional development. Around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-35 kts of
   effective shear will allow a few storms to organize and potentially
   produce isolated damaging winds and marginally severe hail.
   Convection over the Gulf Stream has produce outflow that is
   approaching the eastern Peninsula coast. This could impact the
   duration of the most intense activity, though a brief uptick in wind
   gust potential is also possible as this boundary interacts with
   ongoing storms.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   25208029 25198059 25238072 25538078 26528043 26748020
               26608009 25818010 25208029 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN