Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT25 KNHC 302059 CCA
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   
1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 30 2022

CORRECTED TO ADD A POSITION ACCURACY.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
ISLAND OF JAMAICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY
BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS WEEK.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  73.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  73.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  73.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.0N  74.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.3N  76.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE   0SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.7N  78.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.2N  81.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.5N  83.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N  85.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.4N  89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  73.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI




Source link