Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Local Statement for Ian (Tallahassee, FL)


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WTUS82 KTAE 262157
HLSTAE
FLZ015-114-115-118-127-128-134-270415-

Hurricane Ian Local Statement Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL092022
557 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022 /457 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, 
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**IAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CUBA AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO 
THE EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY. IMPACTS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING TO 
THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch have been issued 
      for Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Coastal Franklin, 
      Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for 
      Coastal Dixie and Coastal Taylor
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Franklin, 
      Coastal Jefferson, and Coastal Wakulla

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 660 miles south-southeast of Indian Pass or about 620 
      miles south of Suwannee River
    - 20.3N 83.2W
    - Storm Intensity 100 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 13 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 5pm EDT, the center of Hurricane Ian was located about 160 miles 
south-southeast of the southwestern tip of the country of Cuba. Ian 
is expected to continue its northwest motion through the next 12 
hours after which a gradual turn to the north and northeast is 
anticipated into Tuesday. Hurricane Ian is then expected to slow down 
early Wednesday morning as it enters the eastern Gulf of of Mexico. 
It's expected to continue to traversing north and northeast through 
the end of the week, but considerable uncertainty still remains in 
place after Wednesday on where it moves onshore.

The first round of tropical storm watches and storm surge watches 
have been issued with this update. Tropical Storm watches are in 
effect for all coastal zones from Indian Pass east towards the 
Suwanee River. A Storm Surge watch is also in effect from the Aucilla 
River east to the Suwanee River.

Forecast uncertainty still remains high with Ian, but we will be able
to provide additional details on Ian over the next 24 hours.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts
across Apalachee Bay Coast from Aucilla River east towards the Suwanee
River. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by 
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become 
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low 
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and 
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. 
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in 
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited 
impacts across the rest of the Apalachee Bay from the Aucilla River
west to Indian Pass.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida Panhandle, Florida Big Bend, 
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is 
anticipated.

* WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across the Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having 
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural 
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed. 
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be 
      uninhabitable for weeks. 
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and 
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban 
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and 
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential 
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in 
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become 
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become 
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple 
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed 
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. 
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with 
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. 
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to 
significant impacts across the rest of the Florida Big Bend.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the
southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution 
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power 
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys 
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, 
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees 
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats 
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, 
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is 
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, 
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so 
immediately. 


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies 
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your 
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the 
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging 
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the 
center of the storm. 

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large 
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or 
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as 
near the Gulf of Mexico or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or 
poor drainage area, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to 
safe shelter on higher ground.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather 
Service in Tallahassee FL around Midnight, or sooner if conditions 
warrant.

$$



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