Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion

WTPA42 PHFO 111435

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number  45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP052023
500 AM HST Fri Aug 11 2023

Hurricane Dora maintained a small eye through most of the night, 
but it has since mostly filled in. Infrared satellite shows the 
southwest sector of the cyclone degrading as it is slowly moving 
into an area of higher southerly shear. Dvorak current intensity 
estimates of 5.5 from PHFO and SAB correlates with a maximum 
estimated wind speed of 102 kt, with no change since the previous 
advisory. CIMSS ADT was 97 kt and AiDT was 89 kt just after 1200 
UTC. The initial intensity of Dora has been decreased slightly to 
100 kt to account for the satellite appearance.  

The initial motion for this advisory is 290/17kt. Dora continues to 
move toward the west-northwest along the southwest flank of a deep 
high pressure system. This general motion will continue through the 
next 24 hours, with the forecast track following a tightly clustered 
guidance envelope. The forward motion of Dora will gradually slow 
down and turn more northwesterly through the next several days as 
it approaches a weakness in the ridge aloft produced by an upper 
level trough to the northwest. The forecast track has been adjusted 
slightly north of the previous forecast after 24 hours, then a bit 
more northeast after 60 hours to keep closer in line with model 
consensus TVCE.

The intensity forecast for Dora shows a gradual decrease in maximum 
winds through the next 36 hours, then a slightly faster decrease 
through 5 days when it becomes post-tropical. The SHIPS guidance 
shows a sharp increase in vertical wind shear after 24 hours. The 
intensity guidance shows considerable spread during this time of 
steady weakening, with the ECMWF weakening quickly and the GFS 
holding onto the intensity through the next 5 days. Official 
forecast represents a blend of the two forecast trends.

Dora is expected to move into the western Pacific as a typhoon 
later today. This will make Dora only the second tropical cyclone 
on record to reach/maintain hurricane strength in the eastern, 
central and western Pacific. Although Dora of 1999 almost completed 
this feat, the only other tropical cyclone known to do this was 
Hurricane John in 1994. 


INIT  11/1500Z 14.5N 178.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 15.7N 180.0E   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 16.9N 177.5E   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 17.8N 175.2E   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 18.3N 173.0E   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  14/0000Z 18.7N 171.1E   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 19.4N 169.4E   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  15/1200Z 21.0N 167.2E   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  16/1200Z 23.5N 166.2E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Foster/Birchard

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