Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1309

   Mesoscale Discussion 1309
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

   Areas affected...south-central and southeast Kansas...north-central
   and northeast Oklahoma...and southwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251738Z - 252015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of all hazards is
   expected to increase across the discussion area this afternoon.
   Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...As of 1730Z, mosaic radar data indicated a long-lived, 
   bowing line segment west of Wichita with additional more cellular
   storms extending into north-central OK, east of Ponca City. That
   activity is likely still slightly elevated above a stable,
   near-surface inversion with the primary forcing mechanism being a
   zone of warm thermal and moisture advection occurring along a 30 kt
   low-level jet. Visible satellite indicates breaks in the cirrus
   cloud canopy across northern OK, which should allow for pockets of
   stronger heating to occur. And while mid-level lapse rates are not
   particularly steep, the presence of a very moist boundary layer will
   combine with the increased insolation to support MLCAPE of 1500-3000
   J/kg with weakening MLCIN for surface-based parcels.

   The destabilization process coupled with the persistent warm
   advection is expected to promote the gradual intensification of the
   ongoing storms this afternoon with additional storm development
   possible along the synoptic front and/or any lingering
   outflow/differential heating boundaries. The combination of 40-45 kt
   westerly mid-level flow attending a subtle short-wave trough over
   central KS and the low-level jet mentioned above is resulting in a
   favorable kinematic environment for severe storms with the KVNX
   currently sampling 0-6-km shear and 0-1-km SRH of 54 kt and 200+
   m2/s2, respectively.

   Given the above considerations, the potential for all severe-weather
   hazards is expected to increase this afternoon with any storms that
   can become rooted within the boundary layer. The greatest potential
   for a strong tornado or two will exist with supercell storm modes
   within this convective regime.

   Convective trends are being monitored for signs that storms are
   becoming surface-based, which would necessitate strong consideration
   for a watch.

   ..Mead.. 06/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   37609778 37729729 38079580 37989469 37659436 37099410
               36639424 36579468 36479516 36549655 37039780 37609778 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN