Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1296

   Mesoscale Discussion 1296
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0514 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

   Areas affected...portions of far southern Oklahoma into far northern
   Texas...extreme southwestern Arkansas and extreme northwestern
   Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242214Z - 242345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail risk exists along a
   baroclinic boundary under the condition that storms can initiate and
   organize.

   DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary baroclinic boundary currently
   resides just north of the Red River along much of far southern OK.
   Despite weak synoptic forcing for ascent, extreme buoyancy (4000+
   J/kg MLCAPE) and minimal MLCINH with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear
   is coinciding with the boundary per 21Z mesoanalysis. As such, any
   storm that manages to develop and sustain itself will have the
   potential to produce severe wind/hail or perhaps a tornado. A storm
   has recently initiated over Atoka County, OK, suggesting that
   surface-based heating is strong enough to support additional
   isolated attempts at convective initiation along this boundary over
   the next several hours. The severe threat should remain isolated
   given overall lack of deep-layer ascent.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 06/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34580004 34719900 34679652 34399496 33879370 33129284
               32659274 32469311 32619394 33059519 33369674 33649842
               33799915 33949963 34119997 34580004 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN