Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1294

   Mesoscale Discussion 1294
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0212 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of the Great Basin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241912Z - 242115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the eastern Great Basin
   region will pose a risk for severe downburst winds. Watch issuance
   is possible for portions of the region as thunderstorm coverage
   increases through late afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows steady deepening of cumulus
   across eastern NV into UT as temperatures quickly warm into the low
   90s. An 18 UTC RAOB from SLC sampled some lingering inhibition, but
   modifying the sounding based on regional surface observations
   suggests that inhibition should largely be removed as temperatures
   warm into the mid 90s. Wildfire smoke and high-level cirrus across
   central and eastern UT may mute diurnal warming to some degree, but
   portions of eastern NV/northwest UT will likely reach these
   temperatures within the next hour or so. As this occurs,
   thunderstorm initiation will become more probable, especially as
   ascent ahead of an approaching upper disturbance overspreads the
   region. Dry boundary-layer conditions observed in the sounding
   appear to be fairly widespread based on 45-50 F dewpoint depressions
   region-wide. These low-level thermodynamic profiles are favorable
   for accelerating downdrafts capable of producing strong to severe
   wind gusts, possibly as high as 75 mph (especially if more coherent,
   loosely organized clusters or bands can become established as hinted
   by some CAM solutions). Trends will continue to be monitored, and
   watch issuance may be needed as thunderstorm coverage begins to
   increase.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

   LAT...LON   38441564 39331575 39781560 41411408 41721331 41771274
               41661206 41361171 40741143 40291132 39951131 39601138
               39131156 38591213 38271280 38011349 37951394 37831494
               38001526 38441564 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH