Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1238

   Mesoscale Discussion 1238
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0655 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364...

   Valid 212355Z - 220130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail and perhaps a severe gust
   remain possible with the stronger storms over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown an uptick in
   convective intensity with multicells across western NE over the past
   1-2 hours. These storms are approaching an airmass characterized by
   1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50 kts of effective bulk shear, which will
   continue to support a severe hail threat. A severe gust is also
   possible given the 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates in place (per 23Z
   mesoanalysis). Nonetheless, the ongoing storms are approaching an
   area of increasing convective inhibition due to tropospheric
   overturning caused by earlier storms. It is unclear how long-lived
   the longer-term severe threat will be in NE given convective
   overturning. However, in the near term, a few instances of severe
   hail or a gust remain possible.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42410164 42470090 42160047 41390035 40850046 40480090
               40480120 40610155 40950191 41220198 42410164 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN