Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1221

   Mesoscale Discussion 1221
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

   Areas affected...portions of western into central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359...361...

   Valid 210424Z - 210600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359, 361
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe gusts will remain a concern with the ongoing MCS
   for at least the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A mature cold-pool-driven MCS continues to propagate
   southeastward across western into central KS, with several recent
   measured severe gusts noted. Recent KICT inbound velocity data shows
   that a pronounced rear-inflow jet persists with this MCS, as well as
   a book-end/line-end mesovortex on its northern flank. Furthermore,
   this MCS will continue to progress southeastward amid a highly
   sheared and buoyant airmass, characterized by 50 kts of effective
   bulk shear (oriented roughly normal to the MCS leading line) and
   2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. Given
   the highly organized storm structure and favorable ambient
   supporting environment, severe gusts will likely continue with this
   MCS for at least a few more hours.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   38120065 38409974 39679754 40019690 39989644 39489610
               38679621 37789685 37189738 36779817 36539919 36579987
               36840045 38120065 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN